Parabolic Tops
MSTR has broken above a falling Supercycle resistance line three times since it became a Bitcoin treasury. Each breakout ran into a parabolic top. Here's where MSTR trades against today's line, and where the next top would land if a breakout repeated one of those runs.
MSTR vs the Supercycle line
Daily, log scale. Dashed lines project each past run from the breakout date below.
If MSTR breaks the line on —
Past Supercycle breakouts
Breakout = the day price crossed that cycle's falling resistance line; price = the line's value that day. Top = highest intraday high within the following 150 trading days.
| Cycle | Breakout | Line price | Top date | Trading days | Top (high) | Gain |
|---|
What the calls would be worth at each top
The calls from the calculator page, valued on each projected top date at that top's price. Cost is today's price per contract (100 shares).
How this works
- Supercycle line: a straight line on a log chart through two points. It falls by a constant percentage each trading day, and is extended forward the same way.
- Projection: pick a breakout date. The breakout price is the line's value that day. Each past run is copied forward: the same number of trading days to the top, and the same percentage gain from the line price to the top's intraday high.
- Call values: with the IV spike on, each call is priced on the top date with Black-Scholes at the chosen implied volatility (4.5% interest rate, no dividends), the same model as the calculator's IV toggle. With it off, a call is worth only its intrinsic value (top price − strike). Real prices at a top depend on the volatility at that moment, and IV can collapse quickly once a rally stalls.
- Trading days skip weekends and NYSE holidays, matching how the past runs were counted.
- Price history is split-adjusted daily data (MSTR split 10-for-1 in August 2024). The latest closes update after each trading day.
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