Path 1
Hold Bitcoin
—
cash needed today
MSTR Price—
Bitcoin—
CoinGecko at the close
Call
—
Implied Volatility
—
How much do you need today to make $10,000,000?
Three ways to reverse-engineer the goal if MSTR and Bitcoin reach your targets. Change any assumption below — every number updates instantly.
At the Nov 20, 2024 MSTR top, the Mar 2025 $300, $400 and $500 calls were priced at 159%, 169% and 161% IV. That was up from about 90–105% before the run.
Path 2
Hold MSTR shares
—
cash needed today
Path 3
MSTR calls
—
cash needed today
Capital required, side by side
Follow the Journey to $10M
What it takes today to make $10M with Bitcoin, MSTR shares or MSTR calls, and how much cheaper or pricier it got since the last email. Free. Unsubscribe any time.
Every strike for
Lower strikes and later expirations cost more per contract but pay off sooner. Tap a row to use it for Path 3.
| Strike | Price | Cost / contract | Value at target | Multiple | Break-even | Contracts | Cash needed |
|---|
Build a ladder
Buy the same number of contracts at each rung of one expiration. We find how many per rung reach your goal.
What if MSTR lands somewhere else?
Value of the Path 3 position at expiration for a range of MSTR prices.
| MSTR at expiration | Position value | Profit / loss | vs. goal |
|---|
How the math works
- Bitcoin / MSTR shares: profit per unit = target − today's price. Units needed = goal ÷ profit per unit. Cash needed = units × today's price.
- Calls: each contract covers 100 shares. Value at target = (MSTR target − strike) × 100. Profit per contract = value − premium × 100. Contracts = goal ÷ profit per contract, rounded up. Cash needed = contracts × premium × 100.
- IV spike (optional): with the toggle on, each call is valued on your sell date using the Black-Scholes model at the implied volatility you choose (4.5% interest rate, no dividends). This adds time value on top of intrinsic value. That extra only exists if you sell before expiration, and IV can drop quickly once a rally stalls.
- mNAV (optional): with the toggle on, the MSTR target = mNAV × (Bitcoin held × Bitcoin target) ÷ shares outstanding. This uses mNAV on a market-cap basis, the same basis as the historical tops. Strategy.com reports an enterprise-value mNAV, which adds debt and preferred stock and so runs a little higher. It also assumes no new shares or Bitcoin purchases from today.
- With the IV toggle off, option values are intrinsic value at expiration only. Neither mode includes taxes or commissions.
- Option prices come from the CBOE delayed feed and are refreshed once each trading day after the 4:00 pm ET close. Bitcoin is from CoinGecko at the same time.